Excited to share a behind the scenes look into what I'm looking at. Some may have seen this before, but for most, especially daily clients, this will be new. Scroll down for projections, but I recommend reading this first!
Making sports betting decisions without projections is gambling, and in the long run, you'll end up losing. If you see another handicapper on Instagram/online, ask them for projections. Most are just analyzing common stats (W-L record, record against the spread, Yards, ERA, Points, goals, etc. etc.). This is not the way to analyze games, and only a fraction of the equation. If it were that straight-forward, then being an analyst would be easy! Some aren't analyzing anything and just going with their gut. And of course, others are buying projections and then using them as the basis (that's fine, some handicappers can buy my projections and deploy better marketing and/or fundamentals to them!). But regardless of fundamentals, weather, injuries, etc., projections should always be the basis for how you make your picks. As I mention in my threads, I don't even bother analyzing games where our projections are close to Vegas (within a point or two) as there are just too many sports that we're looking at.
Week 11 projections Snapshot
As you can see here, often times my line (column C & E) will project close to the bookies line (D&F). Since I'm analyzing so many games, I typically don't dig deeper if it's within 3. Am I missing some opportunity? Sure, but we're analyzing 6-7 sports at a time, so it's not practical to research every game - however sharing this, you might find value in looking deeper into games that I have off by 1-2-3 points. Those games historically hit over 50%, so there's value in the play.
Looking into week 11 here are the plays the model likes:
SF - 3: we don't like due to fundamentals
SF - Over: we like 2x, it hit
GB - We liked it when looking at 1st half due to probability of a tie
Dallas/Atlanta - Over: 2x, big delta
Vikings/Bears - Under (looking into it still)
NOLA/Eagles - Over: 1x
Eagles +7.5 (looking into it still, not crazy about fundamentals to date)
Wash/Houston - Over (looking into it still, not crazy about fundamentals to date)
PITT/JAX - Over (like it, i think. Most likely going to post)
Jax - do not like fundamentals
Chargers -7.5: 1x play
Oakland/Arizona - over (dislike fundy's, not playing)
KC/LA - over (dislike fundy's, not playing)
Baltimore -3.5 (huge delta, dislike fundy's due to flacco injury, not playing)
Vikings/Bears - Model likes Vikings. Analyzing further.
As you can see, when just looking at 3+ line discrepancies we need to analyze 12 games. This is analysis done in addition to the model projections (which is formed from a combination of various team statistics and probabilities). Lastly, it's quite possible that the model needs revamped. YTD in the NFL we are over 70%, so we're not looking at major tweaks, but as you can see we project over most of the lines that vegas gives, so it's something we're constantly monitoring.
Let me know if you have questions. Happy to chat via DM or email. Additionally, I'll look to share more about HOW to make projections in the future, but figured I'd start here.